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Monday, January 14, 2013
Friday, January 11, 2013
As Governor Walker prepares his biennial budget, anticipation
is building over whether he will propose additional state investment for workforce development. The Public Policy Forum’s July 2012 report on Wisconsin’s workforce development system identified 36 programs in nine state departments that provided employment and training services in fiscal year 2012,
and found that a vast majority of the $407 million supporting those programs
came from federal sources, with only $34 million (8%) contributed by the state.
The state contributed funds for 13 of the 36 workforce programs it administered in 2012, with nearly half of the state funding going to vocational rehabilitation. According to Competitive Wisconsin’s recently-released Be Bold 2 report, $19.3 million of the state’s total contributions were matching funds required by federal programs, while only $14.7 million represented state appropriations.
Past Forum research has indicated that Wisconsin may be more dependent on federal funding for workforce development than neighboring states, and has shown that federal funding has been decreasing over the long term, a trend that does not appear likely to change in the near future due to the current fiscal pressures facing the federal government.
The governor will present his budget in February.
Thursday, December 27, 2012
If it’s December, then it must be time for the Forum’s
annual list of its top five research findings of the year. Last year’s list included findings on MMSD’s
daunting capital needs, the dramatic decline in Milwaukee County’s corrections
population, the City of Milwaukee's reliance on state shared revenue, and our
region’s tardiness in embracing strategic economic development planning. The 2012 list is summarized below in
- More than four-fifths of Milwaukee County’s rated child care providers stand to lose funding under YoungStar, the state’s new child care quality rating system. Our January report analyzing the first year of Youngstar implementation examined the ratings earned by 534 child care providers in Milwaukee County as of December 2011. We found that 428 (80.1%) received 2-star ratings and 33 (6.2%) received 1-star ratings. In light of the state’s plan to reduce Wisconsin Shares subsidy payments for 2-star providers and disqualify 1-star providers from Wisconsin Share payments entirely, that meant more than 80% of the rated providers would lose funding under YoungStar, a consequence that could impact the availability of child care options.
- Much of the growth in the Milwaukee Parental Choice Program in the past year appeared to come from existing private school students. The 2011-12 school year was the first to reflect the impact of major changes to school choice program eligibility adopted in the 2011-13 state budget, including an increase in the enrollment cap, broader eligibility limits, and expansion to schools outside the City of Milwaukee. Our annual survey of voucher school participants released in February revealed not only that much of the growth in voucher use from the previous year was in schools that already participated in the program, but also that it appeared to have come from students already enrolled in those schools.
- Fire department consolidation that preserves existing capacity can still save millions. In May, we released a comprehensive report on options for sharing or consolidating fire services in the southern Milwaukee County communities of Franklin, Greendale, Greenfield, Hales Corners and Oak Creek. Our finding that a full consolidation option could save nearly $2 million annually may not have been surprising to those who have examined fire service consolidation proposals in other states, or to those familiar with Milwaukee County’s consolidated North Shore Fire Department. It was illuminating to find, however, that such substantial savings were achievable without eliminating any fire stations or reducing direct firefighting staff.
- MATC’s technical diploma offerings are generally attuned with the region’s projected job openings. Our December report on the activities and resources of Milwaukee’s key workforce development players examined MATC’s role in providing non-degree occupational training to job seekers. We found that despite longstanding criticism of the college for failing to appropriately align itself with the needs of area employers, MATC’s technical diploma offerings match up well with Department of Workforce Development projections regarding future job openings. Nursing, Barber/Cosmetologist and Emergency Medical Technician were the most heavily enrolled technical diploma programs in the 2010-11 academic year.
- MPS’ five-year fiscal forecast is more optimistic than those of Milwaukee County or the City of Milwaukee. Our December fiscal assessment of the Milwaukee Public Schools examined the district’s most recent five-year fiscal forecast and found that its projection of a $41 million deficit in 2017 is plausible and perhaps even a bit on the conservative side. While a projected deficit of that magnitude certainly is not ideal, it is more optimistic than the five-year deficits projected by the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County earlier this year. It is important to note that each government’s five-year forecast is based on financial modeling that is somewhat speculative in nature, and that a complete understanding of the fiscal condition of each must go far beyond their five-year forecasts. Nevertheless, given the substantial position cuts and general gloom surrounding MPS’ budget in recent years, to find that MPS’ five-year challenges may not be deeper than those of the city and county was somewhat surprising.
Friday, December 21, 2012
When the Public Policy Forum decided to dive deeply into the finances of the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) six months ago, we did so with considerable trepidation. Having tracked MPS' finances on a general level for the past several years, we were well aware of the district's huge retiree health care liability, the fiscal threat posed by declining enrollment, and the impacts of the latest state budget. Despite the good news we were hearing from MPS officials about the impacts of soon-to-be-implemented fringe benefit changes, we were concerned about precisely what we would find when we lifted the hood and dug into the mechanics of MPS' finances.
Today, after completing our comprehensive assessment of MPS' fiscal condition, we are relieved to say that the school district’s short-term fiscal outlook is not as ominous as we had feared. In fact, the district’s most recent five-year forecast projects a 2017 deficit of about $41 million, which is actually more optimistic than similar forecasts prepared by the City of Milwaukee and Milwaukee County. We also find, however, that the volatile and uncontrollable fiscal environment in which the district must operate creates an “untenable fiscal structure” that continues to raise serious questions about MPS' longer-term future.
Our 84-page report - entitled Passing the Test, But Making the Grade? and released this morning – uses the same fiscal monitoring methodology used previously for reports on Milwaukee County, the City of Milwaukee, MATC, and MMSD. It examines fiscal trends, compares MPS to state and national peers, and analyzes the causes and scope of the district’s fiscal challenges.
A major undercurrent of the report is MPS' lack of control over its own financial destiny. The district is far more dependent than other local governments on state funding, and much more susceptible to fiscal upheaval from policy and program decisions made in Madison and elsewhere. Those decisions not only can involve state appropriations and revenue limits, but also regulatory changes to charter school or private school choice programs that can sharply affect MPS enrollment. MPS' finances also can be hit hard by the chartering decisions of outside entities, and by demographic trends impacting the city.
Other key findings from the Forum's new report on MPS' financial condition:
- While the near-term future is looking better, deep structural issues remain. MPS' health care changes planned for the 2013-14 school year – assuming the continued legality of Wisconsin Act 10 – will save almost $35 million annually and reduce its retiree health care liability by $1.4 billion. The longer-term future looks far more challenging, however, as the district’s revenue streams are likely to be constrained well into the future; its retiree health care liability will remain daunting; and its ability to further reduce personnel costs will be limited by its need to attract and retain quality teachers and administrators to compete with voucher, charter and suburban schools.
- MPS’ high expenditure levels must be placed in context. While prohibitive fringe benefit costs have been an issue, MPS’ high levels of per-pupil spending are driven much more by its receipt of large amounts of state and federal categorical aids. Those funds are used largely to support economically disadvantaged and special needs students, who comprise the vast majority of MPS’ student population. When categorical funds are excluded, the district’s per-pupil spending is only slightly above the state average.
- MPS’ greatest challenge is its lack of fiscal options. After its initial rounds of benefits changes, MPS will have few alternatives left to counter the effects of flat state funding and declining enrollments. The district does not have program revenue, as do other local governments, and it is unlikely to be able to grow the property tax at the same rate as in the past. Meanwhile, enrollment competition exerts pressure on MPS to maintain its teacher compensation structure and capital footprint, and potential programmatic cutbacks run the risk of reducing program quality and engendering further enrollment and revenue loss.
For example, the report's fiscal modeling shows that if the 2013-14 benefit changes are implemented, if the district can achieve marginal annual growth in combined equalization aids and property tax levy under future state revenue limits and appropriations, and if MPS can achieve a limited reduction in salary expenditures, then balanced budgets are readily achievable in the next five years. Under another plausible scenario, however, in which the benefits changes made possible by Act 10 do not fully take effect, major revenue streams remain flat, and salary expenditures decrease by a lesser amount, a dire fiscal picture emerges.
The report concludes by stating that “perhaps the most troublesome question raised by the fiscal assessment is whether any entity could be expected to effectively manage a fiscal predicament as challenging as that faced by MPS in an environment that is plagued with such uncertainty."
That finding leads us to urge local and state leaders to reach agreement – once and for all – on the role MPS will play in the city’s education framework, and to define and secure the resources required to effectively fulfill that role.
The full report can be accessed here.
Friday, December 14, 2012
In a new report examining Milwaukee’s workforce development system, the Public Policy Forum cites a higher level of coordination and cohesion among key workforce development players since the establishment of the Milwaukee Area Workforce Investment Board (MAWIB) in 2007, but suggests a need for better coordination between the city’s economic development priorities and the needs of its unemployed.
The report – "Pathways to Employment" – analyzes the resources, programming, and priorities of MAWIB and the Milwaukee Area Technical College (MATC), widely considered the two most prominent workforce development entities in Milwaukee, and also summarizes the activities and spending of other key workforce agencies. In addition, the report explores promising efforts to coordinate workforce development activities in Milwaukee’s health care, manufacturing, and food and beverage sectors.
On the whole, we find that sector-specific workforce strategies show considerable promise for the economy at large, but that many of the individuals being served by MAWIB may not have the education or skill levels to meet the requirements of area employers in sectors being targeted by economic development leaders – like advanced manufacturing, financial services, and water – or to benefit from related technical diploma programs at MATC or WCTC. As Milwaukee identifies economic development goals, therefore, it is important to determine the extent to which those goals should influence workforce development policies and programs.
That is not to suggest the individuals MAWIB serves cannot advance beyond low-skill, entry-level positions through additional work experience and/or education, nor that the sectors targeted by regional economic development efforts should change. It does suggest, however, that MAWIB‘s role as the entity serving those with the greatest barriers to employment demands a commitment to a broad array of services and strategies that respond both to the needs of key industry sectors and the needs of its clientele.
Other key findings from the report include the following:
- MAWIB has made substantial progress in addressing several longstanding concerns that had surrounded its predecessor (the Private Industry Council), including improved coordination of local workforce development services and greater involvement of major area employers. Interviews with key stakeholders, however, indicate there is more progress to be made.
- MATC’s technical diploma program offerings seem generally attuned to the demands of the Milwaukee area job market, as estimated by the Wisconsin Department of Workforce Development. In tandem with those offered at Waukesha County Technical College (WCTC), most MATC technical diploma programs seem to be appropriately scaled in relation to job projection numbers, though in many cases retention appears to be a problem.
- The Milwaukee W-2 agencies’ designation as the one-stop job centers for Milwaukee County, and the sheer size of their funding base, make those organizations major players in Milwaukee’s workforce development system. Consequently, the education and skills levels of W-2 participants logically should play a prominent role in determining the city’s workforce development priorities and strategies.
- Employment and training services in Milwaukee are largely supported by federal funding sources, which have been declining for many years. Consequently, local workforce development organizations must continue to pursue new revenue sources and improve efficiency in order to maintain existing service levels. The recent creation of the Milwaukee Area Workforce Funding Alliance to better leverage the funding contributions of local philanthropists and to pursue additional funding from national foundations has represented a positive start toward that effort.
The goal, it suggests, should be to strike a proper balance between the two.
Thursday, November 8, 2012
Across the state, school accountability has been a hot
topic in recent weeks, including the first release
of individual school
report cards in late October, which sparked
lively public discussion about how to effectively measure and improve
school quality, student achievement, and teacher effectiveness.
Among our key findings:
- North Star scorecard: Consistent with last year’s findings, the district generally did not meet its North Star grade level targets. This suggests the targets are in need of revisiting, especially as student growth takes on increased relevance in the statewide accountability system and the WKCE is phased out in favor of a new state assessment. It is anticipated that a new superintendent will investigate the need for revisions to the North Star framework in light of past performance and new state objectives and measures.
- High school completion: The state’s focus on college and career readiness sharpens attention on the district’s high school completion rate, which showed a modest gain in 2010-11 to 73.2%. All student subgroups except white students increased their graduation rate over 2009-10, with African American students showing the most dramatic rise—7.4 percentage points to 60.6%.
- WKCE proficiency rates: The 2011-12 school year brought mixed results in overall district reading and math proficiency. Historically, reading proficiency rates in the district have been among the lowest relative to peer districts and have tended to be higher in 8th grade than in 4th grade, only be precipitously lower in 10th grade. In 2011-12, however, the reading proficiency of Racine 10th graders jumped seven percentage points to 59%. As with reading, Racine’s math performance is lower than its peer districts and the state average. Unlike last year, however, when the district showed no progress over the prior year, 2011-12 saw Racine’s math proficiency improve slightly in all three grades.
- Value-added growth: RUSD’s average value-added growth in reading over the past three years is equivalent to average growth statewide and outpaces growth in four peer districts. In math, RUSD lagged the state average and was the lowest of the peer districts. At the school level, all but two of RUSD’s 21 elementary schools met or exceeded the state average growth in reading, while all but six did so in math. Notably, the majority of these schools started below the state average in WKCE achievement. These results show how value-added growth analysis paints the picture of achievement with a different brush and highlights the progress of all students, not only those who meet proficiency standards in a given year.
Monday, October 22, 2012
Few would dispute the idea that effective mental
health care relies on the quality and accessibility of health care
professionals, especially nurses. As stakeholders in Milwaukee County work to
redesign the county’s mental health system, one of the crucial issues they face
is how to build an effective and efficient mental health nursing workforce in
light of anticipated changes under the new system.
- Because of a perceived need for nurses with an interest in mental health both now and in the future, incentives for increasing the mental health workforce might be necessary. The redesign process should also anticipate the need for more nurses.
- Although employers are satisfied with the mental health nurse applicant pool, very few nurses are nationally certified or advanced practice nurses. This suggests that while schools of nursing provide a basic foundation of mental health training, planners should explore possible reasons for the apparent lack of deeper knowledge and discern how this deficit will affect future service provision.
- Employers envision a larger role for mental health nurses in outpatient/community settings. However, today most nurses work in inpatient settings. Planners should explicitly consider the optimal roles of nurses in community health settings.
- Turnover among mental health nurses is relatively low (less than 10%) with the greatest source of job satisfaction deriving from patient care. Sources of job dissatisfaction are related to pay and advancement. If nurses’ responsibilities become more administrative or policy-oriented under a redesigned system, the reduction in patient contact may cause nurse job satisfaction to suffer (and attrition to rise), particularly if wages do not change.
- Employers and nurses lack consensus about which skills are most important for patients’ recovery. This suggests either a lack of clear communication or differing expectations as to the job objectives. Employers and nurses should work toward greater clarity about these differences if the role of nurses is to change under a redesigned system.
- Employers and nurses find more common ground regarding their views of the specific skills that need strengthening. Planners should therefore focus future professional development resources in these areas.
- Both nurses and employers placed specific importance on the ability of nurses to understand the treatment needs of patients diagnosed with dual/co-occurring disorders in which mental illness coincides with substance abuse. As the county shifts its focus to dual/co-occurring disorder treatment, the need for improved training for nurses will be imperative.